Tupperware Time

According to the Secretary of Offense, Pete Hegseth, the Strait of Hormuz is open, but it is too risky to transit ships through it. Further, there is nothing to worry about. Sounds like a distinction without a difference followed by a lie.

Among many things that are delivered by boat through the Middle East, here are the top items stuck in the Gulf, as annualized percentages:

· About 20% of the world’s oil

· About 20% of the world’s liquified natural gas (LNG)

· Up to 50% of the world’s urea (a nitrogen rich fertilizer)

· Over 33% of the world’s helium

· About 23% of the world’s aluminum

So, no birthday balloons for you this year. Better use Tupperware instead of tin foil for your leftovers. Buy that bicycle to get around town, except during today’s snowstorm. You might want to visit your farmer friends for manure instead of plant food fertilizer.

Just like Putin in Ukraine, Trump figured he’d bring Iran to its knees in three days. Now he’s stuck. He can’t declare his version of victory until Israel agrees with him. Israel says they are planning for at least three more weeks. He can’t divert naval vessels from active fighting to guarding tankers through the Strait. He can’t, or at least hasn’t, blown up Iran’s refineries and oil industry because that would push the price of gas even higher. All he has done is ease restrictions on Russia’s oil capacities which allows them to better fund their war of aggression and choice. I’m betting Trump was on the golf course the day they told him all about the ramifications of war.

Worse yet, even if the Bomber in Chief were to end hostilities today, the economic impact will last weeks or months. The suppliers of the above-mentioned goods have already either slowed their production because they have reached storage capacity or have stopped it entirely. It will take considerable time to get current supplies into the market, free up storage, and ramp up production again. In the meantime, your bills rise and your wallet shrinks. Winner, winner, but no chicken dinner for you.

This is how we get forever wars. Trump underestimated what a very pissed off Iran would do if attacked in this manner. So, he must continue to bomb them hoping against hope that they will surrender, lay down their arms, and obey the orange man. Barring that, he can’t get ships through there unless he puts boots on the ground and establishes a perimeter vast enough to prevent missiles from creating giant oil slicks. Getting Israel to stop will be nearly impossible if they have their friend, the world’s the bully, supporting them.

Remember when, as a child, you faced a particularly dangerous choice you were unsure about? Generally, you tried to convince one of your friends to act first. Maybe it was that jump you built for your skateboard, or a creek you wanted to cross, or a water tower you wanted to climb. Never go first. That’s where Trump is at right now, demanding that our allies come to his rescue and escort those tankers through perilous waters. Unsurprisingly, our allies are just like us. They don’t want to go first. Who can blame them?

Maybe the Secretary of Offense would like to steer the first ship through. Who am I kidding, all required helmets would slide off his oil slicked hair.